England could face widespread drought in 2026 unless this winter brings sustained, above-average rainfall, the Environment Agency has warned in a new Drought Prospects Report published on Friday.
After a record-dry spring and a succession of intense summer heatwaves, water levels across the country remain critically low despite recent rainfall, the report said.
England has recorded below-average rainfall in eight of the past ten months, leaving soils unable to absorb sudden downpours and increasing the risk of flash flooding even during drought.
The Met Office forecasts heavy rain into Saturday but says the likelihood of drier-than-normal conditions from November to January is higher than usual.
A dry winter could trigger worsening drought next year, potentially leading to hosepipe bans, pressure on wildlife, poor crop yields and challenges for businesses and consumers, according to the report.
The Environment Agency’s report lists three possible rainfall scenarios and concludes that without at least average winter rainfall, most regions will enter 2026 in drought.
Helen Wakeham, the Environment Agency’s Director of Water, said the situation is finely balanced.
“There will be a drought next year, unless we get sustained rainfall through the winter,” she said.
“The public have been brilliant in using a little less water this summer… I would urge people to continue to be as efficient as possible with their water use this winter — even if it is raining outside.”
Water Minister Emma Hardy echoed the warning, noting that the long, dry spell continues to threaten water supplies, farming and natural habitats.
She said the government is pushing ahead with plans to boost long-term water resilience, including constructing nine new reservoirs and investing in upgraded pipelines to reduce leakage.
The Met Office’s Chief Meteorologist Will Lang added that while average rainfall remains the most likely outcome, regional variations could mean some areas receive little relief from persistent dry conditions.
The Environment Agency is urging households and businesses to continue conserving water through winter to help protect supplies, rivers and wildlife ahead of what could become another challenging drought year for England.
With average winter rainfall, most of England would be in recovery from drought or have returned to normal conditions by spring 2026. Wessex is in the phase that comes before drought.
